INDUSTRY NEWS
Expected that the price of building materials will fluctuate downward this week.
Forecast this week: In terms of raw materials in the black market, it is expected that iron ore prices will stabilize and stabilize this week, coke prices will fall, downward pressure on coking coal market will increase, scrap prices will consolidate, and billet prices will fluctuate. In terms of finished materials, construction prices are expected this week. Under the shock, the price of plate has continued to weaken, and the price of cold and hot rolling has fluctuated within a narrow range.
August is coming to an end. Looking back at the performance of the cold-rolled market in August, it can be described as “stable as a mountain”. Under the overall poor demand side, the supply of steel enterprises has remained tight. Therefore, most merchants believe that the current price is mainly supported by the cost of raw materials and the supply side, and there is relatively lack of confidence in the next September market.
In terms of price, as of August 26, 2019, the average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coils nationwide was 4,323 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan / ton from July 31, compared with 609 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. The average price of the national 4.75mm hot rolled coil was 3,770 yuan / ton, down 118 yuan / ton from July 31, compared with the same period last year, down 647 yuan / ton. In terms of spreads, the current hot and cold spreads continued to expand to 563 yuan/ton from 434 yuan/ton at the end of July, and the spread basically returned to a reasonable level. Obviously, compared with the continuous decline in hot rolling, the cold rolling price performance in August was generally firmer, and compared with the cold rolling price in the same period last year, this year's cold rolling price is obviously lacking momentum. For the so-called "Golden Nine" statement, most businesses said they did not agree.
As of August 23, the overall operating rate of the 29 cold rolling production enterprises was 87.23%, which was flat on a week-on-week basis, up 2.12% year-on-year; the capacity utilization rate was 73.91, up 0.09% on a week-on-week basis and down 5.71 from the previous year. %; weekly output was 748,200 tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons on a week-on-week basis, a decrease of 57,800 tons from last year; steel mill inventory was 287,200 tons, a decrease of 0.59 million tons on a week-on-week basis and a decrease of 64,100 tons from last year. Obviously, the operating rate this year is up year-on-year, but the capacity utilization rate and steel mill output have been significantly reduced. It can be seen that the steel mills' orders are not ideal. More specifically, considering the profit factors, the steel mills' production enthusiasm is significantly reduced. . From the inventory point of view, the current cold rolling stocks have been falling for nearly two months, especially the cold rolling social stocks, which have been in the decline channel since mid-May. In contrast, the hot-rolled social inventories began to accumulate from mid-May, until the beginning of August, which formed a gradual downward trend for three consecutive weeks, in stark contrast to the performance of cold-rolled stocks. Combined with the current hot and cold price performance and the constant repair of the spread, it can be seen that the support effect of cold rolling stocks on prices is more obvious.
On the whole, the current cold rolling price performance is relatively stable, and the average price has even returned to the initial opening level of about 4,300 yuan / ton. This year's demand performance has been tepid, and the price is hard to break through, making the order enthusiasm of the business is not very high. In terms of steel mills, due to the influence of raw materials, the cost of cold rolling production remains high, which makes steel mills have a higher willingness to price. The current market can be described as both weak supply and demand. For September, the steel mills continued to increase production, in addition to preparing for the National Day military parade in October, when the environmental protection will be overweight, it is expected that supply will be difficult. Therefore, the author believes that the price in September will fluctuate and rise under the support of the supply side.
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